FXUS63 KOAX 282126
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES BEING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. AT THE SFC THIS
AFTERNOON...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
TEXAS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CURRENT SNOW PACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA
WHICH CONTINUES TO CREATE HAVOC ON TEMPS AND WL BE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO PRESS
SEWD. WAA WL BE ONGOING OVERNIGHT AND WL HELP TUESDAY HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A CDFNT WL
MOVE SOUTH BY MID DAY TUESDAY AND BE THRU THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z
WED AS A 1040MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS SYSTEM WL
JUST BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA TO OUR NORTHEAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO SET UP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES OVER THE REGION.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND SPIT OUT
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF. WL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT TODAY IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS/EC...BUT THERE
ISN'T TO MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MEAN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. SFC
CDFNT SHLD BE THRU THE FA BY THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO COOLER AIR
FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONT TO WANT TO DIVE SHRTWV ENERGY
INTO THE DVLPG ERN US TROF...MOVG THIS THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SHRTWV WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
FA...BUT SOME LIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE TROF AXIS AS IT PUSHES THRU
AND WILL CONT SOME LO CHC POPS DURING THE FRI AND FRI NIGHT
PERIOD...BUT MAINLY THE SRN FA. PRECIP TYPE IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF ANY PRECIP WLD FALL AS RAIN AT
THIS TIME.
DRYING IS EXPECTED FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
MO RIVER VALLEY AND UPSTREAM SHRTWV RIDGE STARTS TO SPREAD EWD. THIS
SHRTWV RIDGE WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STG JET
MOVING INTO THE WRN US WHICH IS LIKELY TO GIVE OUR FA OUR NEXT BEST
SHOT AT PRECIP. GIVEN THE EXTENDED RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN LARGE-SCALE WAA TO DVLP ON SUN NIGHT AND THRU THE DAY
ON MON. GIVEN THE STG AGREEMENT IN THIS AND THE ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES WILL INSERT SOME SCHC POPS ON SUN NIGHT IN THE NW CWA
AND INCREASE IN CHC AND EXTENT THRU THE DAY ON MON. PRECIP TYPE
LOOKS TO RANGE FROM MAINLY SN FAR NORTH TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONT INTO AT LEAST TUES ACRS THE
FA.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING
DOWN FROM THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 15-16Z TUESDAY AT KOFK BUT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AT
KOMA AND KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/BOUSTEAD/MILLER