FXUS63 KOAX 010845
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CST TUE MAR 1 2011
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IS POISED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT BEFORE COOLER AIR IS FELT
TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT COOL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING
MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND TIMING. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH LOW
POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH MAIN FOCUS ON EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
STRONGER DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MODELS KEEP BEST CHANCE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE
IF INTRODUCTION OF PRECIP IN SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS NEEDED AFTER HPC MORNING EVALUATION OF MODELS. PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN COLD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING...
BUT CHANCES ARE HIGHER AFTER 06Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER