FXUS63 KOAX 032035
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO SATURDAY...WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE DEEP SNOW COVER OVER MANY AREAS.
MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING AS NEAR-
SURFACE INVERSION FORMS...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SEE TEMPS HOLDING IN THE TEENS
WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN UP A BIT.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TOWARD 30
ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE BETTER LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL OCCUR. UPPER
WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION...
BUT LAYER MOISTURE IS LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GLACIATION
OF LOW LEVEL SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS WILL NOT OCCUR...SO PERHAPS
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RIDING DOWN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ICE
CRYSTALS ALOFT...SO LIGHT SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY. AND WARM LAYER JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE MY MELT SOME OF THAT LIGHT SNOW BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND IN OUR SOUTHWEST. SO...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN OUR SMALL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SPRINKLES WITH A MENTION OF FOG. WILL HAVE
TO EVALUATE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LATER...BUT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
IF IT DID OCCUR IT WOULD BE A VERY MINOR EVENT.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...
WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE/ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST JUST NORTH OF NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW. WESTERLY
LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL AGAIN HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE 30S.
THE WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ON SUNDAY WILL PLUNGE INTO NEBRASKA AND
IOWA...AND APPEARS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SO HAVE
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THEN...BUT STILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE
CONCERNING AMOUNTS. LOOKS LIKE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID
TRANSLATING TO A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS
NEAR OR BELOW 30...WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN MORNING
LOWS.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE WEST COAST WITH NWRLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
UPPER TROF AXIS WL SWING THRU THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. ARCTIC AIR WL BE QUICK TO FILL IN
BEHIND THIS TROF AS 1040MB SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL STATES.
ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUE
COLD TEMPS TO FOLLOW AS YET ANOTHER 1040MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WITH AREA BETWEEN
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$