FXUS63 KOAX 030936
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
336 AM CST THU FEB 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
...TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CHALLENGE...THEN LOW POPS THIS WEEKEND...
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. OAX FORECAST AREA IS
BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE A WEAK SOUTHWEST WIND IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT CALM WINDS REMAIN AT IOWA OBSERVATIONS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN NEBRASKA TO -13
IN CLARINDA IOWA WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND SNOW COVER IS DEEPER.
REGARDING THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WILL ADJUST IT
ACCORDINGLY AND CUT BACK ON AREAL EXTEND BECAUSE MOST SITES SHOULD
STAY ABOVE -20F.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A MINOR AXIS OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
BULGING INTO THE DAKOTAS...WITH BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT RISES NOTED ON
UPPER AIR OBS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT CAN MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MELTING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
ADJUSTED SATURDAY MORNING LOWS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER FORECAST
TO RAISE THEM DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT WEAK
VERTICAL MOTION MAY PERSIST OVER THE AREA DUE TO WEAK DPVA FROM
UPPER SHORTWAVES. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TRIM THESE POPS
BACK SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE LACK OF FOCUS AND LACKING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.
NIETFELD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MRNG WL
INCREASE THIS AFTN AND BECOME WESTERLY. OMA...DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS...MAY TEND TO STAY TO THE SOUTH...BUT WILL ALSO INCREASE IN
SPEED TO AROUND 12 KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR OMA/LNK
TONIGHT...BUT SOME WIND IS LIKELY THRU THE NIGHT FOR OFK. LITTLE IF
ANY CLDS /OTHER THAN CI/ ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ015-034-
045-052-053-066>068.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$