FXUS63 KOAX 020855
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CST WED MAR 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT 08Z WITH A
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING.
MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE COLD ADVECTION CUTS OFF DURING THE
MORNING AS FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS PRIMARY EFFECT...ALTHOUGH GFS STILL SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF
QPF OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE
CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME SMALL POPS FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
IN THIS FORECAST BUT OTHER MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON PARTICULAR MODEL. MOST OF THE 00Z
MODELS APPEAR TO FOCUS THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA
WITH THE GEM THE ONLY MODEL TO GIVE CWA MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTION IN THIS FORECAST WITH POPS
LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER FOCUS AND
FORCING INDICATED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME WITH 00Z MODELS
CONTINUING TREND OF INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FEET AFFECTED THE TAF SITES EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH 21Z. AS WINDS
VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO RETURN. MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KOMA
AND KLNK. THE MVFR CEILINGS COULD AFFECT KLNK SLIGHTLY EARLIER...BY
LATE AFTN.
SOME LGT PCPN POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCE SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF
TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/MILLER