FXUS63 KOAX 012130
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 PM CST TUE MAR 1 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SFC CDFNT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SWD THRU THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 21Z WAS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
CONT TO SLIP SWD THRU THE FA THIS EVNG. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FNT...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY FALLING THIS EVENING. SC DECK OVER
SD AND MN WL BE MOVG SWD THIS EVNG AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL TEND
TO BREAK UP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT. SHLD SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON WED AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR
WED NIGHT INTO THURS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW-
LEVEL WAA TO INCREASE ON WED EVNG LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DPVA STARTS TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS ALONG WITH THE INCREASE IN SATURATION MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD THURS MRNG...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF
HIGHWAY 81. SFC TMPS WL TEND TO LEVEL OFF AND START TO INCREASE
TOWARD THRU MRNG...BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE BELOW FREEZING IF
PRECIP FALLS. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING AND MAY ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MIX OF FZRA AND SN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RA BY MID
MRNG THU. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A BIG DEAL BUT WILL INCLUDE THIS IN
THE FORECAST. PRECIP SHLD GENERALLY END BY THU AFTERNOON. WILL SEE
A NICE WARM UP ON THU AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CDFNT EXPECTED TO DROP
THRU THE FA ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG. THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED THROUGH AS MORE SHRTWV ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER INTO THE PLAINS ON FRI WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH
BY LATE AFTN.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
COMPLEX EXTENDED FORECAST WITH TWO SYSTEMS TAKING AIM AT THE CNTRL
PLAINS. PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER TROF DIGGING ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES WITH SFC LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND NORTH TEXAS. PCPN
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN POPS
FAIRLY LOW AS DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. PCPN TYPE WL BE TRICKY INITIALLY AS WARM
WEDGE OF AIR RESIDES AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. SHOULD HAVE A FAIRLY
QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW THOUGH AS COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. IF SYSTEM EVOLVES LIKE MODELS INDICATE...WE COULD SEE A
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BAND SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.
ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS GIVING THE REGION DRY
AND COLDER CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY SETTING UP STRONG RETURN FLOW BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
NEXT SYSTEM WL COME LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS NEBRASKA. AFWA ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TUE
INTO WED. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD MAKE FOR SOME VERY MESSY
CONDITIONS.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...AND BASICALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNTIL 03Z TO 04Z. AS OF 19Z THE
NORTHERN COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY DROPPED INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WERE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AT 15G25KT. AFTER 03Z MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...BKN/OVC 010 TO 015. A BRIEF IFR CIG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME. AFTER 15Z LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS TO CLEAR OUT WITH A TREND
BACK TO VFR.
MEYER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$