FXUS63 KOAX 091000
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
400 AM CST WED MAR 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CLEARING OUT LINGERING PRECIPITATION...
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER IOWA AT 09Z. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WEAK
ECHOES IN PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS LIGHT SNOW FROM ALBION NORTH
APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF LINGERING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...BUT
THE AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROF...BUT DROP TO 25 AT ALBION WELL WEST OF THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROF AXIS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH 15Z WHILE PRECIPITATION LINGERS...THEN DRY AFTER 15Z ALL
AREAS.
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRANSITION TO A
WARMER PATTERN...WITH 850 TEMPERATURES AROUND +10C FRIDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAD REFLECTED THE WARMING TREND...THUS DID NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES.
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...BUT THIS
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK AND UNABLE TO TAP INTO A
GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. 850 WINDS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN PREDICTED AS HIGH AS 65 KNOTS BY THE GFS
AND NAM...THEREFORE WIND GUSTS WERE INCREASED DURING THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.
YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FROM IA INTO MO WILL SHIFT
EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND WILL BRING IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. WOULD EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO 6+ SM BY MID MORNING AND
CIGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY THIS
EVENING. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR MO RVR
VALLEY AND A WEAK TRAILING DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO KOFK VICINITY ALSO THIS MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
NIETFELD/CHERMOK