FXUS63 KOAX 092101
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CST WED MAR 9 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
ENDING FLURRIES AND CLEARING CLOUDS OUT TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH WAS FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SURFACE LOW WAS WELL EAST OF OUR AREA MOVING
EAST OF CHICAGO NOW. NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DESCENT ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WERE HELPING TO SCOUR OUT LOWER CLOUDS IN
ALL BUT OUR EASTERN CWA. RADAR AND SURFACE OBS HAVE INDICATED MAINLY
FLURRIES EAST OF TROUGH AXIS...AND BACK EDGE WAS SLOWLY WORKING EAST
AS RADAR RETURNS GRADUALLY DRIED UP. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT THOSE
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH CLEARING LINE MOVING EAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING...KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TAMING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ALSO SPILLING INTO THE AREA. SO
THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE OUT INTO THE
15 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS HIGH SHIFTS
EAST THURSDAY...EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BEFORE NOON...THEN THE REST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SUNSHINE AND WARMING LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 40S WITH A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY AND INCREASES AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WITH 850 TEMPERATURES NEAR 10C ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER...COMBINED WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE
SURFACE...SUGGEST TEMPS WILL PUSH 60 BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE SOONER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT A
LIGHT SHOWER. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER THAN NAM...BUT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES WILL BE IN HOW FAST TEMPS WILL FALL
FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR CWA...BUT MODELS ARE PAINTING A STRIPE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE
SURFACE...SO RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN REBOUND BACK INTO THE 40S SATURDAY. SUNSHINE AND
MIXING NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO OFFSET COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR THE MODEST WARMUP.
DERGAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL BE OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES
TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS OUR
AREA QUITE DRY. ALREADY HAD CHANCE POPS GOING SO WL CONTINUE WITH
THOSE BUT WILL LOWER JUST A BIT. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE VALUES
WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIAL RA/SN MIX IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WAVE IS QUICK TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION WITH FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER TO FOLLOW. A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THRU ON
TUESDAY BUT LACKS MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS HAVE JUST CLEARED OUT OF KOFK AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT
KLNK AND KOMA BY 00Z AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO WORK EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
DRIER DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
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