FXUS63 KOAX 160810
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST MODEL PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ALASKAN GULF UPPER
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY DIGGING SWD ALONG CANADIAN COAST AND EVENTUALLY THE
PAC NW COASTLINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. FOR TONIGHT...
HAVE DECIDED TO MAKE SMALL CHANGE AND REMOVE SMALL POPS. LAST COUPLE
GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN LAYING QPF OVER THE CWA/ERN KS/NW MO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG 305K UPGLIDE/MOIST ADV. HOWEVER COND PRES DEF
PROGS...PER GFS...HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED RUN-TO-RUN AND NOW SHOWING
+115MB OF LIFT NEEDED BEFORE PARCEL SATURATION. THEREFORE HAVE
DECIDED TO GO DRY. HOWEVER TIME SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME
INDICATING INCREASING BNDRY LYR MOIST WITH WELL SATURATED LYR SFC-
850MB DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH
PATCHY/AREAS OF DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE UPCOMING PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. PCPN ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY CAA
BNDRY DROPPING THRU THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE POST-
FRONTAL PCPN NORTH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AXIS OF MID LYR
FRONTOGENESIS/AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT. FROPA WILL BRING NOTICEABLE TEMP
CHANGE GOING FROM UPPER 60S TODAY/WED DOWN TO MID 50S HEADING INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 KTS RANGE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE 10 TO 15 KTS RANGE AFTER 00Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION.
DERGAN
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$