FXUS63 KOAX 152021
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPR LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A WEAK COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IA THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY WASH-OUT OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO KICK IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST AFTER
06Z WITH TEMPERATURES THEN LEVELING OFF...AND MAY START TO
INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. A WARM AND
BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. WE DID INCREASE GOING HIGHS JUST A TOUCH TO NEAR 900 MB
MIX-OUT TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH /WHICH IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AK THIS AFTERNOON/ WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NEB AND IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FAVORABLE LIFT INDICATED ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES...BUT MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING...EXCEPT IN A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST INTO IOWA...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE. WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE.
REMOVED ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH A GOOD DEAL OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY...MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD CAP IN PLACE TO LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IOWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME
MIDDLE 70S SEEM POSSIBLE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEB INTO MN.
HAVE INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN FA INTO THE MID CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
BOUSTEAD
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS DEVELOP A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME
AS DEEP TROUGH INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND DURING THE
PERIOD. TIMING ISSUES WITH UPPER FEATURES AND SURFACE FRONTS WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON FOCUSING FEATURES WITH GFS GENERATING PW WELL
ABOVE PERCENT OF NORMAL BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR THOSE
PERIODS. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP LIMITING
FACTORS. GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH SLIGHT BOOST TO HIGHS SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
FOBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH. WINDS
WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$