FXUS63 KOAX 111817
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2011
.UPDATE...
ALL PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD GUST TO OVER 40 MPH.
OTHERWISE...BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2011/
DISCUSSION...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY...AND
BORDERLINE WINDY BEHIND THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.
COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD. THE NAM/GFS DO HINT AT
A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT ANYTHING WILL MATERIALIZE OTHER THAN CLOUDS
SO KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST DURING THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...THEN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...MOSTLY RAIN...BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
MIXED IN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY BY MONDAY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. ANOTHER FRONT IS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. BOTH
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...DID NOT ADD TO THE
FORECAST JUST YET.
THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING BY WED/THU OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES THAT FAR OUT THOUGH...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN
WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HOLDING A DECENT RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AGAIN...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES THAT FAR OUT
AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
LLWS 200/45KT AT FL008 AGL IS EXPECTED THRU ABOUT 16Z THIS MORNING.
THEN...SFC WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO ABOUT 25KT WITH GRADUAL SHIFT FM
SOUTH TO WEST. BY 08/23Z...SFC WINDS SUBSIDING TO NW AROUND 10KT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>033-042-043.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$