FXUS63 KOAX 112123
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
323 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART.
POTENT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO MOVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING AHEAD AND ALONG
THE FRONT HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
SPORADICALLY HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH. WILL
LET THE ADVISORY GO WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE HOWEVER A FEW
SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY HIT CRITERIA FOR A BIT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN 40S SATURDAY
WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF. DUE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED SFC HIGH...AM
GOING TO LEAVE THE PERIOD DRY FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WEAK FORCING. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AND WAA WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS RATHER POOR BETWEEN 12Z GFS
AND 00Z EURO ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SUPPORTED BY UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH LOW POPS
CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. HPC LEANING TOWARD THE
WARMER EURO AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND CONTINUITY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS SUCH NO BIG CHANGES OR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS
TIME ALTHOUGH AS STATED IN HPC DISCUSSION FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE
LOW SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING.
THEN EXPECT WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
KERN/FOBERT/MILLER