FXUS63 KOAX 291712
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1212 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATES FOR TWEAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME THINNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA AND -SN NO LONGER BEING REPORTED AT KOFK AND KBVN.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN AROUND KOFK/KBVN IN
THE 30S AND SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD
STILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 40S.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SHORTWAVE TROF AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL TRY TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH
NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THINK MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN ALOFT. FARTHER
NORTH...WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FOG/DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011/
DISCUSSION...
PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS SERIES OF WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AMPLIFY TROUGH OVER THE REGION. MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SOME WARMING LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
STILL SOME CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE WAVES MOVE
THROUGH. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CLIPPER
THAT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ECMWF CONTINUES
TO SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THIS WOULD BE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY THIS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A PROBLEM BASED ON EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP BUT GOOD WARMING INDICATED TOWARD THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM AND EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED AS RIDGING RETURNS TO
THE PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND. APPEARS WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DROPS INTO THE PLAINS WITH STRONG SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT. MODEL HAVE DIFFERENCES HERE HOWEVER WITH THE GFS
TAKING A NORTHERN TRACK WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES A SOUTHERN TRACK
AND MORE SPLIT WITH THE WAVE.
FOBERT
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
15-17Z. SNOW IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AT KOFK/KOMA...ALTHOUGH SOME
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING
AS WELL. COULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AT KOFK/KOMA BY
18-19Z...AND AT KLNK BY 17Z.
DEWALD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY