FXUS63 KOAX 292032
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
332 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND THINK THAT ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY...WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE CLOUDS WILL FILL
BACK IN AND LOWER TONIGHT. PER THE WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY...A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH METARS SHOWING
REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW OVER WESTERN KS. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
KANSAS...THINK SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE MEASURABLE. INCLUDED LOW
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR RAIN OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX...WITH PATCHY FOG...THEN AREAS OF FOG FARTHER NORTH. LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT...SOME
FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HAVE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
ZAPOTOCNY
.MID TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...NUMBER OF MASS FIELD PROGS DID NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR
SYSTEM TODAY...SO NO BIG CHANGES MADE FROM GOING FCST. ESSENTIALLY
PCPN CHANCES RELATED TO VORT ENERGY RIDING DOWN FRONT END OF WRN
CONUS RIDGE ALONG WITH UPGLIDE/MOIST ADV WED AFTN THRU THURSDAY
AFTN. CRITICAL THKNS/COBB DATA PRETTY MUCH INDICATING RAIN EXPECT
FOR WED NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX OVER THE NRN CWA. DRY
FROPA THEN THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
QUITE NOTICEABLE LARGE SCALE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MED RANGE
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE TROF COMING ASHORE OVER PAC NW
REGION ON FRIDAY. HPC GENERALLY USING ECM/GEM BLEND...THUS WILL
FOLLOW ALONG WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. DESPITE DIFFERENCES...ALL
ADVERTISING PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE WITH TRANSITION OVER GREAT
PLAINS FROM NW FLOW TO SHORTWAVE RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN
RESPONSE TO WRN CONUS SYSTEM DIGGING THRU THE PD. GENERALLY HAVE
SMALL POPS IN PLACE BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY WITH
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED WRN TROF AND INCREASE OF GULF MOIST. MAY
SEE ISOLD THUNDER SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY...OTHERWISE RAIN DURING
THE DAY...RA/SN MIX NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH OVERNIGHT PDS.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN THE CIGS/VSBYS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AGAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT AFT 15Z. WITH
THE IFR CIGS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT KOFK. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$