FXUS63 KOAX 020751
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
251 AM CDT SAT APR 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS FAIR WEEKEND WEATHER
CONTINUES. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 110M ALONG THE COAST.
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WAS NOSING FROM ND INTO EASTERN NEB...WITH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH KS. SURFACE
RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
MAIN FORECAST ATTENTION IS ON FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS
BACK AROUND TO SOUTHERLY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO REACH ABOUT 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY
IN THE NORTH/NORTHWEST CWA AND CLEANED OUT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THINK MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED THE FRONTAL
TIMING SLIGHTLY...AND FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA BY MID-AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND...WITH FALLING TEMPS IN
THE NORTHWEST AND A MID-AFTERNOON PEAK IN THE SOUTHEAST TO FOLLOW
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. DID CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING AND SWEEPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CWA AS
STATIC STABILITY INCREASES. BELIEVE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE ANY
CHANGEOVER TO MIXED PRECIP CAN OCCUR...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY RAIN
MENTION. HAVE KEPT ONLY A NARROW RIBBON OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...AND OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED
POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND NUDGED UP TEMPERATURES...AS
SYSTEM CLEARS AWAY QUICKLY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALLOW DEEPER
MIXING. DID TWEAK TEMPS DOWN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH...BUT BUMPED UP ON TUESDAY UNDER
SOUTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUED FAIR SKIES. ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
PROGGED ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WITH QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
MODEL FORECAST HIGHS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS DRY...BUT DID KEEP MAX
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERED WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING.
MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. BY LATE THIS MORNING WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS. FROM 06 TO 12Z
SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES
BRINGING WITH IT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/PEARSON