FXUS63 KOAX 022037
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 PM CDT SAT APR 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
SURFACE OVER NORTHEAST WY TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO INCREASE LOWS
OVER THE NORTHWEST FA. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS IA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...CLEARING THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FA WHERE HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DRY FRONT FOR OUR FA WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...AND ONLY MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE. A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR STARTING SUNDAY EVENING AND
ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING. POSITIVELY TITLED LARGE-SCALE TROF AXIS
WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH DPVA AND
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING. THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR PRECIP AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS STARTING FIRST IN
NORTHEAST NEB AND THEN WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. A WINDY AND COLD DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE FA ON MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF SC IN THE MORNING...BUT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER THEN SETS IN FOR TUE AND WED WITH THE FLAT WESTERN
US RIDGE EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A SHORT-
WAVE TOPS THIS RIDGE A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING..BUT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. MODELS THEN ADVERTISE A LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CHANGE TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH DEVELOPING
AND THE MEAN EASTERN US TROUGH LIFTING OUT. THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD
TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF ANY TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THIS DEVELOPING MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...WITH BOTH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL TRY NOT TO GET
TO SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LIFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WED NIGHT INTO THU AND WILL
INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM FRIDAY INTO SAT AND WILL
ALSO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRONTAL PLACEMENTS AND PRECIP. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR FLIGHT
OPERATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THROUGH 12Z-15Z EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO G25 KNOTS. AFTER 15Z
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 03Z AND 13Z...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 54 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET.
MEYER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$