FXUS63 KOAX 100839 AAA
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
338 AM CDT SUN APR 10 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LATEST OBS SHOWING STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW IA TO NW KS
WITH THE SFC LOW CENTERED IN ERN NEB. PCPN ACTIVITY WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE DAKOTAS VIA UPPER SUPPORT FROM VORT
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP TROF SLOWLY MIGRATING EWD OVER THE
ROCKIES. FOR TODAY...POSSI9BLE PCPN AND STRONG WIND THE MAIN ISSUE.
QPF PROGS FROM NSSL 4KM WRF/SPC 4KM WRF/24HR RUC13 ALL SUGGESTING
AFTN/EVENING TIME FRAME FOR PCPN ACTIVITY WITHIN THE CWA WHEN NRN
PORTION OF VORT LOBE MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AFT 06Z...LIFT
DIMINISHES RAPIDLY AS THE TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH BEST
UPPER LVL QVECT CONVG. EXPECT NRN SECTION OF THE CWA HAS BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ACTIVITY. ALSO...DEEP MIXING FROM AROUND 750MB EXPECTED AS
SFC LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL GO WITH HEADLINE THIS
AFTN FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BASED ON SREF ADVISORY
CRITERIA PROG. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE DRY FCST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AXIS OF MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT SETS
UP FROM MN TO WRN KS. NAM AND GFS PW VALUES AROUND .75"...SO ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO TAP FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT...THUS WILL
GO WITH SMALL POPS NORTH.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE OFK TERMINAL EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS NOW AT THE LOCATION. THE FRONT SHOULD
SLOW AND STALL BEFORE IT GETS TO THE OMA/LNK TERMINAL THIS MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AT OMA/LNK FOR THIS MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS TO IFR AND THEN MVFR IS LIKELY ARE
EXPECTED AT OFK BY LATE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE OMA/LNK SITES BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
WEST WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT OMA/LNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
JB
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ045-051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$