FXUS63 KOAX 091955
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 PM CDT SAT APR 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT BISECTS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAP ERODING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING. SOME TCU ALREADY STARTING TO
SHOW UP ON VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AT 19Z.
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING AS STRONG
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MOST OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CHALLENGE ON SUNDAY WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AREA WITH SHARP GRADIENT EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST FORECAST BASED ON 12Z GFS TIMING.
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ACTIVE EARLY ON IN
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS DEVELOP RATHER
DEEP UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING IN MOVING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST TRENDED
TOWARD 12Z HPC GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH
THE AVIATION FORECASTS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE
MORNING FOG AND IFR CIGS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED TO MVFR OR VFR.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE KOFK AREA
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL BE. HOWEVER...OTHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THERE AFTER 00Z.
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AT THE MOST LIKELY
TIMES...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE EXACT TIMING. ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO SEVERE.
OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/NIETFELD