FXUS63 KOAX 120745
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING CANADA WAS DRAGGING ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE THE INITIAL SURGE OF
CAA INTO THE REGION HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. LEADING EDGE OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED ACROSS ERN MT INTO WRN WY. BNDRY
SHOULD BE AT THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. GLANCE AT
SFC WIND TIME SERIES ADVERTISES THE FRONT MAKING IT TO KOFK EARLY
WED MORNING THEN THRU KOMA MID AFTN. REGARDING MAIN FEATURE...MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEPICTING POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING OFF THE
WEST COAST THEN COMING ASHORE ON WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM THEN STRENGTHENS
AS IT MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS
OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS IT TAKES A NEGATIVE TILT AND DPVA
INDUCES LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN WRN KS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL
ADVERTISING IMPRESSIVE FORCING WITH MAX OMEGA AND 500MB-300MB QVECT
CONVG PHASING OVER THE CWA. MOISTURE RETURN IMPRESSIVE AS WELL WITH
PW VALUES 1-1.25"...ABOUT 200% OF NORM. APPEARS THAT CAA TO SUPPORT
SNOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA AT LEAST THRU FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
MAYBE A BRIEF RA/SN MIX FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM QUICKLY
EXITS EAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...84HR TOTAL ACCUM QPF PER NAM/GFS/CMC
APPROACH 2" ON CWA WRN PERIPHERY BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT TAF SITES THROUGH 13/06Z. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE 12/06Z
TAF VALID PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$