FXUS63 KOAX 112005
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW REDEVELOPING...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DECENT
MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. WHILE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 20S...RESULTING IN AT LEAST VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA.
A COLD FRONT POISED TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING ON THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...THE NAM DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH IF ANY QPF. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...FEEL THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION
APPEARS MORE PROBABLE...AND WILL FORECAST CHANCES OF RAIN GRADUALLY
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SEPARATE COOLER MID 50S TEMPS
TO THE NORTH...WITH LOWER 70S TEMPS TO SOUTH. GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...COULD ALSO SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WHATEVER PRECIP MIGHT DEVELOP NORTH OR NEAR THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BRIEF BREAK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONG WAVE THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY HEAVIER THAN
WE/LL SEE WITH THE FIRST ROUND ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME COLDER AIR
BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD THOUGH...RESULTING IN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH COULD PUSH EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WITH THE LOW AS IT PUSHES EAST
OF THE ROCKIES CLOSING OFF THE LOW...RESULTING IN A MUCH DEEPER
CYCLONE OVERALL...DRAWING COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. THE ECMWF ALSO
CLOSES THE LOW OFF...BUT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
GFS...BUT IS GENERALLY NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE
A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODELS CHANGES
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA IF WARMER GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS CAN BE OVERCOME.
NEVERTHELESS...COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST...WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK TO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ONE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME MODEL STRENGTH DISCREPANCIES
THOUGH...SO JUST MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD...AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AROUND 15-16Z
AT AROUND 10-13KT.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$