FXUS63 KOAX 222025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE WORKING QUICKLY EWD THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND AFTERNOON HEATING DRIVEN CU/POSSIBLE ISOLD SHOWERS
NWRN ZONES SHOULD ALSO DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. GUSTY WINDS WRN COUNTIES SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING NW WINDS LIKELY TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
CENTRAL SD EARLY FRI AFTERNOON MOVES INTO MN. LITTLE CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS TIMING AND FOR MIN/MAX TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT/SATURDAY. SOME EROSION IN LOWER CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW MOST READINGS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
AS NRN STREAM UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS...UPPER FLOW TO BECOME
SWRLY WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MID CLOUDS SRN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO GENERATE QPF SRN ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER CHANCES APPEAR TO
REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SW. FELT A FEW SHOWERS/MID LEVEL SPRINKLES
COULD DEVELOP TO OUR SW IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES OF MEASURABLE
REACHING FORECAST AREA WAS SMALL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DRY
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
.LONG TERM...TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. KEPT PRECIP POTENTIAL LOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS
KS-MO...AND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE REMAINS WELL WEST. AS WAVE EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
CWA...BUT DID DECREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. AS UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE
EAST...SHOULD SEE SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SHORT-LIVED HIGH PRESSURE ON
TUESDAY...AND HAVE REDUCED POPS DURING THE DAY. ALSO KEPT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY DRY...THOUGH ACTIVE PATTERN OVERALL PROVIDES
LOW CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
IN WESTERN ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CERTAINLY LOOKS
HIGHER SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
WITH PRECIP MISSING THE CWA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT
PERIOD FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL AS MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL READINGS THAT
WILL FEEL QUITE MILD AFTER THIS COOL STRETCH. NEXT UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...BEYOND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST...BUT ALSO WILL NEED ATTENTION AS IT APPROACHES.
MAYES
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
UPPER LOW SPINNING INTO CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE INTO SRN MN OVERNIGHT
AS IT WEAKENS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE CLEARING EAST OF NEBRASKA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND AREAS OF GUSTY WSW SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. OTHER HEATING DRIVEN CUMULUS
IN NERN NEBRASKA SHOULD ALSO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING NW SURFACE WINDS WILL DROP BACK
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. LINCOLN APPEARED TO BE ON SWRN EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS CEILING MENTION WITH 18Z TAF
FORECASTS WERE CONFINED TO KOFK AND KOMA.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES/CHERMOK