FXUS63 KOAX 230830
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
A CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WAS MOVING EAST.
SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE OF AROUND 1001 MB WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WERE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...MAINLY FROM
10 TO 20 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO WRAP INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. SO GUSTY WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.
00Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO DID INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THERE. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. CLOUDINESS SHOULD THICKEN AND LOWER ON SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURS IN THE 295-300K LAYER. WILL STILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
RELATIVELY LOW EXCEPT FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF ARE ALL
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THEN HAVE A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
GFS START TO GET OUT OF PHASE BY ABOUT MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE ON
DETAILS STARTS TO DROP OFF. IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME RAIN
TO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HAVE HIGHS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS WERE SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KOFK AND KOMA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CIGS THEN REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT