FXUS63 KOAX 270800
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARILY TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF CONCERN IN THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT 06Z CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER SHARP WAVE WAS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WAVE AS IT TRACKS EAST TODAY TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW REMAINS SEMI-STATIONARY
UNTIL PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON THURSDAY THEN MOVES SLOWLY
EAST. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MINNESOTA LOW
TODAY SUGGESTS SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS...PROBLEM
BECOMES HOW FAR TO SPREAD THE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR NOW WILL LIMIT TO NORTH HALF OF THE CWA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED CAPE THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT DAYSHIFT CAN ADD EVENING POPS IF
NEEDED.
UPPER RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
EASTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS MAIN FOCUS AND FORCING STAYS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING FOR A GOOD DEAL OF SC TO MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND BREAK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ALLOW FOR CU TO DEVELOP WHERE BREAKS OCCUR...BUT THE
BKN DECK SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY AT OFK/ WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
THREAT APPEARS TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS LIKELY AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/BOUSTEAD