FXUS63 KOAX 272018
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
318 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT. FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL...CLOUDCOVER...AND
TEMPERATURES.
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER MINNESOTA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND WILL
REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAD MOVED INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND RAIN WAS REPORTED AT ALBION. AT 19Z WE WERE
STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHTNING NEAR HURON AND AT 230PM...WE HAD SOME
PEA-SIZED HAIL AT BLOOMFIELD. TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO THE 50S
AND 60S IN SOME SPOTS WHERE THERE WERE FEWER CLOUDS...AND MAY SEE
ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WITH MAX HEATING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAINLY BEFORE SUNSET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT DECREASE
COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
ZAPOTOCNY
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
PARKED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DOES PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -22 TO -24...COMBINED
WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...LIKELY RESULTING IN
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN...VERY SIMILAR TO WHATS HAPPENING
TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...OR GENERALLY NORTH OF I80. 850MB COMPUTED LIFTED INDEX ALSO
APPROACHES ZERO DURING THIS TIME TOO...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
HAPPENING TODAY. WE DID EVEN RECEIVE A PEA SIZE HAIL REPORT FROM
NEAR BLOOMFIELD AROUND 230 PM UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...
TEMPS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY
MID 60S IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING.
RIDGING SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT RISING WELL INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH
25 TO 35 MPH SOUTH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH. IN
FACT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THOUGH...THUS
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED...DESPITE THE VERY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
FEEL THAT A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AND
DOUBTFUL THAT WE/LL SEE ANY PRECIP UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING WHICH COULD CREATE SOME
STRONGER STORMS THAT WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
FRIDAY EVENING WOULD BE NORTH OF I80...WITH SOME SMALL CHANCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THIS AREA...BUT EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
COULD REMAIN DRY FOR THIS EVENT.
ALL OF THE INSTABILITY IS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. A SECONDARY PUSH APPEARS
TO COME BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT THE ECMWF IS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS AT ALL...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
A COOL WEEKEND AGAIN WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S.
A RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO WE
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 60S...AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
DEWALD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...HOWEVER TO HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND FL035-050 WITH SHOWERS. THERE MAY
BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO
30KT WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS AGAIN AFTER 14Z THURSDAY.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$