FXUS63 KOAX 082010
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
310 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA AT 18Z STRETCHING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE FRONT COVERING MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL REVOLVE AROUND THIS WARM
AIR MASS LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT COMING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARMER AIR
LIFTS NORTH INTO NEBRASKA AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO
NEBRASKA. WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THEN ON SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST CWA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A STRONG CAP OVER
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA INITIALLY AS INDICATED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BUT CAP IS FORECAST TO ERODE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH STORMS
BECOMING ELEVATED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STRONGER DYNAMICS COME INTO THE
PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SOME CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS FOR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF TROUGH BEFORE ENDING EARLY MONDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW...COOLING ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TRENDS THIS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST HPC GUIDANCE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...
BECOMING IFR BEYOND THEN WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING AS WELL. A WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KOFK...BUT FELT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. THERE
ALSO COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...BUT IT WAS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT WILL PASS ON TO THE
NEXT FORECASTER FOR INCLUSION IN THE POSSIBLE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD