FXUS63 KOAX 090851
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
351 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FCST THIS MORNING TRYING TO TIME/PLACE
CONVECTION BEGINNING THIS AFTN THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING GIVEN
VARYING DETAILS CONCERNING SFC FRONTAL POSITIONS BETWEEN THE
NAM/GFS/ECM. FURTHERMORE...DISCERNING HOW MUCH/WHEN CAP WILL BE AN
INFLUENCE. NAM CONTINUE TO GENERALLY BE THE FASTER OUTLIER COMPARED
TO THE GFS/ECM...THUS WILL BASE POPS TWD THE LATTER SOLUTIONS.
APPEARS THAT FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL COME LATER THIS AFTN OVER
THE NRN CWA ASSOCIATED LIFTING WARM FRONT. CAP WEAKENS LATE PER
MLCINH/LS INDICES...AND THINK THAT SVR STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EARLY
EVENING UP NORTH. PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES FOR THE MOST
PART REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO EITHER IF LATEST MODELS END UP BEING OFF A BIT. DRYLINE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL GO
WITH SMALL POPS ONLY GIVEN STRENGTHENING CAP. ON SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS IS HAVING PROBLEMS ORGANIZING SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OUT OF
ERN CO THEN TWD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT ANY RATE BOTH GFS/ECM DRAG
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INSTABILITY RELATIVELY
WEAK AT THAT TIME SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING SCT
PCPN SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. OTHERWISE WARM SECTOR OVER REGION TODAY
SHOULD ALLOW NICE WARM UP. WARMER MET NUMBER LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE OVERALL THAT COOLER MAV.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. A
WARM FRONT OVER KS AND MO WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OMA/LNK
TERMINALS BY MID/LATE MORNING ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO BECOME SCT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OFK BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS AND VISBY BECOMING BETTER THERE AT
THAT TIME. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISO CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS BY
LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT OFK. WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY ATTM
THOUGH AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND BETTER POTENTIAL
WILL EXITS NORTH OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THEN OVERNIGHT
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING
NORTH.
JB
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$