FXUS63 KOAX 032105
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
405 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS
NOW CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST KS
INTO SOUTHERN IA AT OF 20Z. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 40S. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATES A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
DPVA. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY WORK EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS
THE BAND MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...THE BETTER DPVA SHIFTS
SOUTH AND THE MOISTURE DECREASES...SO WE EXPECT THIS BAND TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES IN. NEVERTHELESS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SOME CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST NEB AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST IA. PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALSO WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
KANSAS. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EARLIER ISSUED WIND ADVISORY.
A COOL AND WINDY DAY IN STORE FOR MONDAY...BUT THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN INCREASES ON MONDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS COLD WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S...BUT A NICE WARM-UP IS IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.
LATEST MODELS INDICATED 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL. THUS HAVE INCREASED OUR GOING HIGHS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
LITTLE COOLER DAY IN STORE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LEADING TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND AN EXPANDING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME
THUNDER POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOOKING DRY FOR FRIDAY.
MODELS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS IN THE
TIMING...AMPLITUDE AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PER HPC AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WE CURRENTLY PREFER A SLOWER EJECTION
OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WE ALSO PREFER A GENERALLY FARTHER
SOUTHWARD TRACK TO THE SURFACE LOW LEAVING MOST OF THE OAX CWA IN
THE COOL SECTOR OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE. THUS WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SAT AND SUN.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR FLIGHT
OPERATIONS AND FLIGHT INTERESTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
AROUND 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 24G36 KNOT...OCCASIONALLY
GREATER...CAN BE EXPECTED. AFTER 12Z WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT STILL
BE GUSTY IN THE 15G25 KNOT RANGE. FROM AROUND 03Z THROUGH AROUND
15Z MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH VICINITY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AND MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST AFTER THAT TIME.
MEYER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
&&
$$