FXUS63 KOAX 030852
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
352 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION AND WINDS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON ON ITS WAY TO
LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS PLUS THE FACT THE SYSTEM IS
QUITE PROGRESSIVE WILL LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS TO LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH IF THAT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS POINT TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THUS WILL NOT BE INCLUDING THUNDER. BEST THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO
WHERE MU CAPES ARE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL NEARLY 20 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING TO TOMORROW MORNING...THE
RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING AND STRONG
WINDS. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING. THOUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
CLOSE TO BEING REACHED EVEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KNOX/ANTELOPE/CEDAR/PIERCE/BOONE COUNTIES AS THE FRONT MOVES IN.
NOT SURE IF MIXING WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH THOUGH TO SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL WIND CORE LAGS THE
FRONT TILL AFTER 00Z.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POST FRONTAL...MONDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY
AND COOL...THOUGH EVEN BY THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ATTEMPTING TO REBOUND. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 850MB AIRMASS
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO A MORE SEASONABLE RANGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MID WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW WITH
THIS FEATURE AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF CYCLE...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TODAY...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. FRONT SHOULD REACH
KOFK BY AROUND 14Z...KLNK BY AROUND 16Z...AND KOMA BY AROUND 17Z.
MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN AT SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO
TAFS YET. ALSO MAY SEE MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND MAY
INCLUDE THOSE LOWER CIGS IN 12Z TAF UPDATE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PEARSON
AVIATION...MAYES