FXUS63 KOAX 030812
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2011
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH CLOUDS ARE PROVIDING A LITTLE INSULATION.
SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
OK/TX. AREA 00Z RAOBS ARE QUITE DRY...AND 850MB DEWPOINTS ABOVE 8C
ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LOW AFTERNOON RH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST...ALLOWING SOME AFTERNOON MIXING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS QUITE DRY...AND EXPECT ANY
AFTERNOON MIXING WILL ONLY DROP DEWPOINTS FURTHER. HAVE GONE MUCH
DRIER WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR
WILL WORK AGAINST PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STRONG
FORCING SHOULD OVERCOME LACK OF MOISTURE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS. KEPT ISOLATED THUNDER...THOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS
FAIRLY MEAGER. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL MODERATE
OVERALL...INCLUDING QUICK TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOLLOWING THE
MID-WEEK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SEE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE
RECOVERY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST BY 04/06Z
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
MAYES/DEWALD