FXUS63 KOAX 020756
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
256 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2011
.DISCUSSION...
BROAD SPLIT TROUGH FROM ERN AZ THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD ACROSS PLAINS. WEAK PIECE OF
ENERGY ON SW EDGE OF NRN STREAM WAS DROPPING THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA
WITH A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS MOVING TWD SCNTRL NEBRASKA. LAST FEW
AFTERNOONS ISOLATED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED AROUND MAX HEATING
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THAT STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS SEWD. HOWEVER...02/00Z OAX SOUNDING AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TDA INDICATED MOISTURE WAS PRETTY MEAGER
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS NO POPS WILL BE CARRIED. H85 TEMPS
STILL FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SO
EXPECT HIGHS ALSO WILL BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS
MANY AREAS WILL SE MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY AS THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES SAGGING SEWD. REMNANT CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT COULD KEEP
SOME READINGS UP BUT WILL GENERALLY FORECAST LOWER/MID 30S FOR
LOWS ALONG WITH SCT/AREAS OF FROST SERN 1/2. IF CLOUDS STAY TO OUR
WEST OR CLEAR OUT A LARGER AREA WILL LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
BY TUE AM COMPARED TO THIS MORNING AND FREEZE WARNINGS MIGHT BE
NEEDED WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH
PROBABLY MORE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF
FORECAST AREA AND RIDGING ALOFT STARTS. NEXT FRONT ARRIVES INTO
NERN NEBRASKA MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS RECOVER LATE...HEATING
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTS IS OFTEN UNDERDONE BY MODELS AND BOOSTED
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. ALSO UPPED POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY NERN
ZONES CLOSER TO WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING. POST-FRONTAL COOLING APPEARS MINIMAL
THURSDAY. FAST FLOW AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES/FRONTS AFTER WILL PROMPT
NO CHANGES TO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH JUST A FEW
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT
AROUND 10 KT BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
CHERMOK/MAYES