FXUS63 KOAX 240813
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
313 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
WET SIDE.
BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 07Z WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTHEAST KANSAS TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TODAY AND SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BORDER BY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW APPROACHES. STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS ALSO INDICATED WITH
MODELS SIMILAR IN CLOSING OFF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY TONIGHT WITH SLOW TRACK EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF WEATHER FEATURES WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
TYPE OF FLOOD HEADLINE FOR NOW TO GIVE DAYSHIFT ADDITIONAL
CONSIDERATION AS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH POPS DECREASING DURING THAT TIME. NEXT WAVE
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN DUE TO FAST FLOW ALOFT AND
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE FORECAST AREA
SANDWICHED BETWEEN WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT REACHES THE KOFK AREA BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z.
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS NEAR FL050 WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS ALL EASTERN NEBRASKA TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AFTER 21Z WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND
06Z. OUTSIDE OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS...A GENERAL LOWERING OF
CIGS TO MVFR IS EXPECTED BY 06Z...AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN