FXUS63 KOAX 232101
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
401 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST IOWA. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THINGS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS EVENING...
AND DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER 10 PM. LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR AREA. WENT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S TONIGHT...VERY
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A
CLOSED UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO KICT BY SUNSET.
AS THE SLOW MOVING LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH MODEST 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS...SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEGIN FOR CWA. ALL OF
THE CWA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...SINCE THIS AREA IS CLOSEST TO THE SFC WARM FRONT WHERE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED. THIS AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
OF EQUAL CONCERN WILL BE FLOODING DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE...WHICH DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONLY AROUND ONE TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES OVER A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IS
TOO HARD TO SAY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. THIS SHOULD FLUSH
OUT A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL PUSH 80 IN MOST PLACES. IF THE SFC WARM
FRONT WHERE TO VERIFY FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA COULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER. AS THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR
WILL WRAP AROUND INTO THE CWA. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6-7
DEGREES C...GIVEN AMPLE CLOUD COVER/RAIN SHOWERS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY
THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO
NEAR 70 AT THE MISSOURI BORDER. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE IS AN OVERALL SLOWING TREND WITH THIS...SO
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE A
DRY DAY AS SFC RIDGING TAKES OVER TEMPORARILY UNDER RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST MOVES
INTO THE CWA. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH GIVING
OUR AREA ONLY A GLANCING BLOW. SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY APPEARS
DRY AT THIS POINT. STRONG UPPER RIDING LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...GIVING WAY TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK.
&&
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
BUT CHANCES SEEMED LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE
AMENDING IF NEEDED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AFTER
18Z TUESDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MILLER
LONG TERM...PEARSON