FXUS63 KOAX 260811
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AREA STAYS UNDER
FAST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BORDER AREA.
UPPER LOW NEAR ST LOUIS AT 07Z WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST
TODAY PULLING BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD EAST OF THE AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MAINLY SUNNY AND MILD TODAY BUT NICE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE
SHORT LIVED. NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND KICKING OFF BAND OF CONVECTION STRETCHING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AS MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT TIMING
IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHER POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
SOME RISK OF ADDITIONAL STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT
MEMORIAL DAY PLANS FOR PEOPLE. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT POPS AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOT LOOKING MUCH BETTER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF STORMS ON PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z ECMWF RETROGRADES UPPER RIDGE
TO THE WESTERN CONUS BEYOND CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP. SUMMER PATTERN MAY HAVE ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING EAST
INTO ILLINOIS WILL CLEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AFTER 06Z AS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DERGAN