FXUS63 KOAX 262221
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
140KT JET OVER THE PAC NW WAS FORCING UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THAT
REGION TO ELONGATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AS WELL AS PUSH SFC COLD
FRONT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS. MODELS ADVERTISING PCPN POPPING UP THIS
EVENING OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST. STRONG
MOISTURE SURGE IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE BNDRY AND THINK BEST CHANCE
FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS.
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO STRADDLE THE NEB/KS...
IA/MO BORDER DURING THIS TIME. NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT PCPN WILL
DEVELOP...SO WILL LAY SMALL TOKEN POPS OVER THE CWA JUST IN CASE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT STRONG CLOSE LOW DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND
BOTTOMS OUT NEAR THE 4 CORNERS ON SUNDAY. EJECTING IMPULSES OUT OF
THE SWRN STATES MAY ENHANCE PCPN DEVELOPMENT ALONG STAGNANT
SFC BNDRY IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THUS WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY PDS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS DIFFERING WITH DETAILS...BUT OVERALL SITUATION ADVERTISED IS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE DOME BUILDING IN OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A
DEEP TROF BECOMING STAGNANT OFF THE WEST COAST WITH INCREASING
NUMBER OF IMPULSES EJECTING FROM ITS BASE INTO THE ROCKIES. UNTIL
FULL TRANSITION TO THIS...UPPER FLOW SW TO NE OVER THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN A SFC BNDRY STALLED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
TO ABOUT WRN KS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DOME SLIDES FARTHER EAST...INCREASING HGTS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
ALLOW THE STALLED BNDRY TO LIFT AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE
DAKOTAS/MN MONDAY AFTN. MODELS PROG LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
POOL ALONG THE LIFTING WARM FRONT AND EXPECT AREAS NORTH WILL HAVE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE PCPN. MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
SWEEPING EWD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. GFS/ECM DIFFERING GREATLY
WITH TIMING FROPA THRU CWA...ECM SOMETIME MONDAY/GFS TUESDAY
MORNING. ECM THEN WASHES OUT THE COLD FRONT IN FAVOR WAA PATTERN
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. GFS GENERALLY THE SAME BUT LAGGING BEHIND
ABOUT 12HR OR SO.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK FROM MT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
WILL SPREAD AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AND INCREASING SE SFC WINDS
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY ACROSS NERN NEBRASKA WHERE A CHANCE WAS INCLUDED AT
KOFK ALONG WITH CIGS DROPPING TO 3K FT AGL.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$