FXUS63 KOAX 151522
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1022 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
HEAVIEST LOCATIONS. THE PERIPHERY FROM KOFK TO KOLU TO KLNK TO
KFNB MAY ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS...AND WE SHOULD SEE THIS WIND DOWN
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS ALREADY WORKING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BUT OPTED TO CUT TEMPS BY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES OVER
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG TOUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS OF 08Z INDICATED A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARING OF A PREVIOUS UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME MODERATE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 600 MB. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING IS WEAKENING WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO ELONGATE. THUS WE ARE EXPECTING THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS THIS
OCCURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME FAIRLY HIGH POPS THOUGH FOR THIS
HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY /ALTHOUGH WE WILL AT LEAST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THRU THE DAY/. TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT WILL SEE
THE MOST SUN SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S GIVEN SOME RECOVERY IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TODAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY NIGHT. WE HAVE ADDED
SOME PATCHY FROST MENTION TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN SPACE WITH TIME IF WINDS LOOK TO
DIMINISH MORE THAN EXPECTED. WE CONSIDERED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEB...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL JUST MENTION IN THE
HWO AND PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT SHIFT. DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THEN MON THROUGH WED AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS
FROM THE HUDSON BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP US DRY...BUT BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES INTO WED. THIS
PATTERN DOESN'T APPEAR OVERLY STABLE THOUGH AND MODELS DO SHOW
CHANGE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A GENERAL TROUGH IN THE
WEST AND INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO WARMER WEATHER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOOKS TO START FOR OUR AREA LATE WED NIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL.
ONLY CHANGES PAST MONDAY WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS NEXT WEEKEND.
BOUSTEAD
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH...INITIALLY
ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND THEN SETTLING SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI
THROUGHOUT TODAY. LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. IMPROVING CIGS BEGIN 16-18Z...WITH VFR CIGS 19-21Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS 8-14KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AT 5KTS OR LESS.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$