FXUS63 KOAX 151935
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO GO COMPLETELY CALM SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. HOWEVER...SURFACE TRAJECTORIES
SUGGEST THAT TEMPS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER END OF THE MID 30S
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...ESPECIALLY IN
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT ITS MID MAY...
WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FROM 4AM THROUGH 9 AM IN THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS PRETTY
ACTIVE AS COMBINATION OF GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE COME TOGETHER
FOR PROLONGED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVING AROUND SLOW MOVING BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM AN OPEN GULF WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME. WILL MENTION LATE WEEK HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IN AFTERNOON HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD