FXUS63 KOAX 132000
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2011
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AREA REMAINS UNDER COOL CYCLONIC FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD AS SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
SECONDARY WAVE GETTING PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF COOL AIR AND LINGERING
MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
GRUDGINGLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SOME LOW
POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM THERE A BIT MORE THAN IN THE SOUTH WHERE
MORE SOLID CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY.
BY MONDAY UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT. WEAK NORTHEAST
TO EAST SURFACE FLOW WILL LIMIT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDED
TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND.
EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO START OFF WITH WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS BUT INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK
AS ANOTHER BIG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS AND
ECMWF VARY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS CLOSES OFF AND
DEEPENS THE LOW OVER KANSAS WITH LITTLE FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE IT
ALONG WHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT FURTHER WEST AND DEVELOPS A NEGATIVE
TILT TO THE WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RISE
TO MVFR BY 22-23Z...WITH SKIES EVEN POSSIBLY SCATTERED OUT FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP
AT KOFK BY ABOUT 07Z...AND AT KLNK/KOMA BY ABOUT 09-11Z. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 19-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 30KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
23Z...THEN GUSTS END OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY 14/14Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD