FXUS63 KOAX 140830
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WAS SPINNING
SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW...EXPANSIVE
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS DECK AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE
DECK BREAKING UP THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
SPENT CLOUDY. SOME SPRINKLES ARE NOTED ON RADAR THIS MORNING
ROTATING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND THIS MAY CONT THROUGH
THE MORNING WITHIN THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE A BIT TOUGH WITH THE CLOUDS. MODELS APPEAR TO WARM TODAY
AND HAVE LOWERED GOING VALUES A CAT OR TWO FOR MOST AREAS. BY
AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DPVA WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY...BUT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -20 C MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA...WE MAY SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN FA AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
SCHC POP.
A LITTLE BETTER SHOT AT SHOWERS WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA. BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH DECENT MOISTURE...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BE THE BEST TIME TO GET SOME MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN. THE CLOUDS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP UP LOWS TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF
TEMPS LOOKING THE BEST. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO EXIT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS DRIER AIR
WORKS IN. THE 850 MB TMPS START TO RECOVER ON SUNDAY AND WITH
DECENT MIXING WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH RECOVER
TO THE LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
MORNING BUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE MORNING.
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THIS TIME WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON BOTH COASTS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE ONLY CHANGE PAST MONDAY WAS TO BACK OFF THE TIMING TO STAR
PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATE
EXPECTED.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
A CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED CLOUDY PATTERN
WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT DUE TO THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE VFR
CEILINGS TO START AT ALL THREE SITES AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AFTER 12Z-14Z...ALTHOUGH SOME DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO PATCHY NATURE OF
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAY USE VICINITY MENTION AND ALSO WHEN LIFT IS
BETTER AFTER 03-06Z TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
STRONGER SIDE AT 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS...THEN DROPPING TO 8 TO 12KTS AFTER 01Z.
ZAPOTOCNY
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$