FXUS63 KOAX 141947
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. BAND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IOWA. OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL TREND OF FORECAST WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK REGARDING TIMING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
STILL SOME CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SUNDAY MORNING AS
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE AREA...THEN MAINLY CLEAR WITH
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE.
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. POTENTIAL FOR
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IF MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR SOLUTIONS AS FLOW
FROM THE GULF OPENS AND FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDS 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE
00Z...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AS A BAND OF MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECTING A STEADY AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AT KOFK/KOMA BY 15/8-10Z...THEN END
BY 15/16-18Z. RAIN COULD MAKE IT TO KLNK BY 15/13Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH 15/01Z...SUSTAINED AROUND 16KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 23KTS...BUT GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 15/01Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD