FXUS63 KOAX 162002
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
302 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH INCREASING POPS
FOR THE AREA AS GULF MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD.
PRETTY NICE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
WEST ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE RAIN WILL BE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TREND OF LEAVING POPS WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS AND
NAM AS ECMWF STILL KEEPS MAIN CIRCULATION FURTHER WEST.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS OR BETTER INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOWEVER
AS GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS ON HANDLING THE UPPER
WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS MAINTAINS A SLOW
MOVING CLOSED CIRCULATION WHILE EURO OPENS THE CLOSED CIRCULATION
TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD