FXUS63 KOAX 160816
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
316 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE FROST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN END OF WEEK RAIN CHANCES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TODAY...SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND EXTENDING FROM
MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM ASOS/AWOS/UNION PACIFIC/DEPT OF ROADS/NE RAIN SITES QUITE
VARIABLE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WILL CONTINUE
THE FROST ADVISORY ALTHOUGH FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE. ADDED PATCHY FROST TOWARD LINCOLN AND BEATRICE WHERE
SOME READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S. THE ADVISORY RUNS
UNTIL 8AM. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STARTING OUT CHILLY...MAY SUNSHINE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...MEANWHILE...A
LARGE...COMPLEX AREA OF MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE CLOSES OFF
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE REMAIN DRY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCAL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT
COOL NEAR 40 TUESDAY AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A LITTLE STRONGER
MIXING...READINGS WILL AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S.
THE NAM/GFS ARE STILL DRY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF WORKS
TO BRING PRECIP EAST...THEN WEAKENS IT. FOR NOW LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER ARIZONA/UTAH/COLORADO. A 45
TO 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO RETURN DEEPER MOISTURE TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE TIME MAY STILL BE
ADJUSTED...HOWEVER WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD...BEGAN TO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH THE PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 40 TO 65KT...SEVERE WEATHER WITH BE A CONCERN FOR
THE PLAINS STATES. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IMPROVES...HOWEVER
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY HEADING OUR WAY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD