FXUS63 KOAX 122011
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
311 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHETHER CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE CWA.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY
STABLE WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. OFF TO THE WEST THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WAS BEGINNING TO
RECOVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AND STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE EML SPREADS
EASTWARD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED IN THIS AREA OF STRONG
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN
NEB/NORTHERN KANSAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT ISO TO SCT TSRA
MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION WITH CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH WOULD LIKELY DROP TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR FA...SO WILL JUST INCLUDE A SCHC POP IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP...AND MANAGES TO
CATCH A COUNTY OR TWO.
OTHERWISE AS EML BUILDS INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS
LOOKING PRETTY UNLIKELY. THERE WILL BE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
POINTS OFF TO THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN A SCHC POP IN THE FAR EASTERN
CWA FOR THIS...BUT ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF TO
OUR EAST. THERE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER MCS OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS TONIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY TO OUR NORTH. WE
WILL INCLUDE A SCHC POP IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAWN IN CASE
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SNEAKS INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
SOME INCREASE IN STRATUS IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE FA OVERNIGHT
AND WENT AHEAD AND INCREASE GOING LOWS A TOUCH MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND AREAL EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES CREATING UNCERTAINTY WITH SPECIFICS BEYOUND 24 HOURS.
LATEST DATA SUGGEST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO STORM COMPLEXES
OVERNIGHT WITH REMNANTS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. FIRST AND STRONGEST EXPECTED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WHERE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE AND THE SECOND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST IOWA BORDER IN MISSOURI. WILL CARRY
SOME LOW POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
INDICATED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME. MOST OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS INDICATED AS THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SLIGHT POPS COVERING EASTERN AREAS
FOR NOW. SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CHANCE OF STORMS FOR
MAINLY EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO ACT AS
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER
ENERGY SHIFTS AND SOME RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE PLAINS AS NEXT
SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
SIMILAR PATTERN REDEVELOPS AND HOLDS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO
AND KANSAS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF KANSAS
AND MISSOURI. THIS POINTS TO MORE POTENTIAL CONVECTION FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. AFTERNOON CU FIELD AT LNK/OFK WILL ALSO START TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TURN WITH SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE
AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY AT OFK. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THE CURRENT TIME HAVE A TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VISBY
AT OMA/LNK AND PREVAILING AT OFK. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER CU FIELD LIKELY BY AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
FOBERT/BOUSTEAD