FXUS63 KOAX 112024
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
324 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS...WE SHOULD SEE A NICE FALL IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS
FOR THIS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TO THIS ACTIVITY. WITH THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...IT WOULD MAKE SENSE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FEEDING ON THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD ALSO FEED AN SMALL MCS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MASS CONVERGENCE OVER OUR
FA...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TWO AREAS SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH MORE
FOCUSED PRECIP THREAT. THUS ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME ACTIVITY MOVE INTO ERN NEB LATE TONIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A BETTER FOCUS SOUTH
AND NORTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN AS ACTIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THIS MORNINGS MODELS INDICATE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WILL SPLIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
NORTHERN WAVE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE
A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH AS
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD 850MB MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME. TIMING AND COVERAGE WILL BE THE BIG UNCERTAINTY
AS DIFFERENT STORM COMPLEXES COMPETE FOR MOISTURE. GENERAL TREND
WILL BE FOR CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS ECMWF AND GFS GIVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
IN STRENGTH OF THE WAVE ENERGY. RIGHT NOW THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY BOTH MODELS. BEYOND THURSDAY
GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE IN THE FLOW AS IT DIGS ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE THE EURO FLATTENS AND
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HPC GUIDANCE FOLLOWED FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AT ALL
LOCATIONS. AFTER CU...MAINLY AFFECTING KOMA SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING LEADING TO LITTLE CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF
PRECIP FROM THE HIGH PLAINS MAKING IT INTO THE LNK/OFK TERMINAL BY
12Z AND OMA SHORTLY AFTER. WE LEFT THE PROB30 GROUPS GOING AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ090.
&&
$$
FOBERT/BOUSTEAD