FXUS63 KOAX 290216
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
916 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS FROM MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS HEAT AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS MAY
MOVE ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED. SEE NO REASON WHY CONVECTION WOULD
DEVELOP IN THE CWA BETWEEN 12-18Z WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WELL
SOUTH...AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR
OTHER DISCERIBLE FORCING...HAVE PULLED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND
HAVE MADE FEW OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT ALLOW FOR MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO START TO RETURN TO THE REGION. AS THIS MOISTURE RETURNS THOUGH
THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING ELEVATED PARCELS FROM REACHING THEIR LFC. THUS IT APPEARS
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS. GOING LOWS SEEMED ON TRACK AND SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES THE COOLEST OVER SW IA CLOSER TO THE HIGH AND
WARMER OVER NORTHEAST NEB WHERE PERSISTENT MIXING OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THEN
THE HEAT THURSDAY...AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO EAST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO AROUND 40
OR 45KT AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. BY 12Z...LIFTED INDICES ARE
ZERO OR NEGATIVE OVER MOST OF THE NEBRASKA CWA AND DROP TO -8 BY
18Z. THE BETTER MOISTURE IS IN KANSAS AND THE MOISTURE FIELDS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR THE LOCAL AREA AS IT WAS LOOKING
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET...PATTERN SUPPORTS LOW POPS AND LEFT IN POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTHEAST BREEZE...SO THAT WILL
HELP WITH THE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL MILD IN THE
70S AND HOT FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO 102. WITH THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FROM
105 TO 110. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND IF
TREND CONTINUES WOULD NEED A HEAT ADVISORY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO HIGH STABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE BETTER
SHEAR IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA AND LIFTS
NORTH SATURDAY AND THEN SETTLES SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THIS SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA...THE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE WITH
US AND THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE
WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MVFR VISBY IN HAZE FOR A PERIOD IN THE MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME SCT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE MOISTURE RETURNS AS WELL.
ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH VFR RETURNING
BY 14Z WED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MAYES