FXUS63 KOAX 280803
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011
.DISCUSSION...
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SPORADIC RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS SETTLING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL MAPS SHOWED SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH UPPER LOW EXITING OUR
REGION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND A STRONG UPPER LOW SETTLING
SOUTH OFF THE OREGON COAST.
WITH GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW EXITING AND WESTERN LOW SINKING
SOUTH...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO OUR
AREA WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 BY THURSDAY. WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST...SO CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HOLD
OFF ANY CONVECTION IN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...AS RIDGE INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH...AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SPARK OVERNIGHT STORMS
FROM KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH
LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 750MB. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
INITIALLY...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NIGHT MAY
HELP SPREAD STORMS NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS ALL
OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH NEARER
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE.
STORM CHANCES WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SQUELCH CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA AS MODELS ARE
ALL PRETTY CONSISTENT IN DRIVING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER
70S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR IS LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS MIXING OCCURS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH 100 IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA...BREAKING DOWN
RIDGE AND ATTENDANT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THUS CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THEN. FRONT STALLS NEAR OR SOUTH OF OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN
SATURDAY. SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN. AND
NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO SURFACE FRONT SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST HAS
THIS HANDLED SO WILL NOT CHANGE.
DERGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$