FXUS63 KOAX 160834
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
334 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE NOTED OVER
EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO. COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND MOVING EAST. OTHER STORMS HAD POPPED
UP IN KANSAS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW NEAR THE BORDER OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. A PLUME OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS NOTED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850 MB
CHART FROM LAST EVENING SHOWED MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE LOCAL AREA...
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THERE.
06Z NAM APPEARED TOO BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION BUT RUC/ECMWF AND
THE 06Z GFS DID NOT SEEM WET ENOUGH. KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 80S MOST AREAS BUT IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AS EXPECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY
APPROACH 90.
BY EARLY EVENING...STILL EXPECT TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO THE
WEST...BUT MAIN LOW SHOULD BE NEAR THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-50 KNOTS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI.
ANOTHER COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...CHANCES SHOULD DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD
TRY TO MOVE IN WITH NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS. TRIMMED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DOWN ON SATURDAY...WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DID HOWEVER DECREASE
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT. 500 MB PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR AREA. MODELS AGREE THAT THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/TUESDAY AND THEN FLOW
WILL TRY TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. IT APPEARS THAT BY LATE NEXT WEEK A
TROUGH WILL TRY TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES.
MILLER
&&
.AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST NEB EARLY
THIS MORNING MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...MOST LIKELY
KNK AND POSSIBLY OMA. MVFR VISBY WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT OFK/OMA. ADDITIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
PERIOD.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$