FXUS63 KOAX 152046
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
346 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WV IMAGERY/PROFILER CLEARLY SHOWING POTENT LITTLE VORT MAX
ENTERING WRN MN THIS AFTN. LFQ OF JET OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WAS ENHANCING LIFT. INCREASING 310K-315K MOIST
UPGLIDE COMES INTO PLAY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...
THINK PCPN DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NEB/KS
BORDER WHERE NOSE OF LLVL JET WILL RESIDE. MAX OMEGA FORCING
PRETTY MUCH REMAINS ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER ON THURSDAY
IN RELATION TO LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IN ERN CO AND
STRENGTHENING EWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS POPS DOWN SOUTH. SFC LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...
AND NOT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO KS TILL FRIDAY MORNING. BEFORE
THEN THOUGH...THREAT FOR SVR STORMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT. STRONG UPPER SUPPORT VIA 850MB-250MB
DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE COMBINING WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH IF CWA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SVR. NAM
SOLUTIONS BASICALLY KEEPS BRUNT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WEST WHILE
THE GFS IS BIT FARTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO THE CWA. FRIDAY THRU
SATURDAY...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS GIVEN THAT NAM/GFS/ECM ALL
SUGGEST SFC BNDRY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FCST STILL REVOLVING AROUND WRN CONUS TROF SLIDING EAST AND CROSSING
THRU THE PLAINS. PROBLEM REMAINS TIMING LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
LIFTING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
AND EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE CWA. GFS AND ECM STILL
DISPLAYING RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...PARTICULARLY IN
REGARD TO SFC FEATURES. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH DEGREE OF REMOP
CONFIDENCE...PREFER TO FAVOR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH TOUCH OF ECM
BLENDED IN HERE AND THERE. SFC LOW LIFTS OUT OF KS INTO NEB ON SUNDAY
WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFTING THRU ERN NEB AND IA. EXPECT
COMBINATION OF SHEAR ALONG BNDRY COUPLED WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
EVENING. GEFS THEN SWEEPS TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH FROPA THRU CWA SOMETIME MONDAY AFTN. THUS
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY. PER ECM...APPEARS TO BE
SMALL CHANCE FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN POTENT
VORT MAX MOVES THRU. 500-300MB QVECT CONVERGENCE SUGGESTING DPVA
OVERCOMING MODEST MID LYR CAA. WILL COVER WITH TOKEN 20 POPS IN CASE
OF ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. SOME POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FOR KLNK AND KOMA. HOWEVER...SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE TOO VAGUE TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THIS
ISSUANCE. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP AND DIRECTLY IMPACT A
TERMINAL...REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT LITTLE VERTICAL GROWTH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
FOLTZ
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$