FXUS63 KOAX 170946
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
444 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
ONE UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. A
SECOND TROUGH WAS EXTENDED FROM THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD INTO UTAH.
ABUNDANT PLUME OF H85 MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. A RATHER COMPLEX
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A LARGE BUBBLE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND A BUBBLE HIGH OVER NEBRASKA FROM SQUALL LINE THAT HAD PASSED
THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE AIDED
BY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THUS...SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS A DEEPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LOW DEEPENS IN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS DAY LOOKS TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE OAX CWA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE
THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
SMITH
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND
ISO TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING
LEAVING A BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON ISO TO SCT
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT LNK/OMA WHERE
MVFR CIGS/VISBY WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$