FXUS63 KOAX 172012
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON SATURDAY THEN BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA HAVE SOME CHANCE THIS EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE AREA BUT THEN EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE AREA ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. INCREASING POPS RETURN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY AS THIS BOUNDARY WORKS ITS
WAY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS WITH CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NEBRASKA AS LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS IN. ACTUAL FRONTAL POSITION WILL BE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES AND STORM CHANCES HIGHLY
DEPENDANT ON THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SAME SYSTEM HANGS AROUND THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE AREA BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LESS CERTAINTY
POPS BEYOND THURSDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM ADVECTION
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO
KLNK/KOMA BY 21Z. WEAKENING CAP IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE BROKEN BY
23Z AT KOMA/KLNK TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS AT THOSE TWO SITES...BUT
THEN PUSHING SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD