FXUS63 KOAX 182026
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
326 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
INTERACT WITH A SHARP SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA.
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA THROUGH NORTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 19Z WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SEVERAL JET SEGMENTS
INDICATED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND ONE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY LINGER THERE
DURING THE EVENING WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON WHERE MCS SETS UP TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. LATEST MODELS PLACE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MISSOURI AS BEST LOCATION FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS WORKS OUT
AREA MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT FOR CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE YET ON TUESDAY WITH THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW IN THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW START OFF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH 12Z ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS IN IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE WENT WITH THE
SLOWER GFS WITH THAT TREND USED IN CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER A DRY
THURSDAY WARMER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION AS UPPR
RIDGE BUILDS. LESS CONFIDENT LOW POPS WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE IN
THE PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF RIDGING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
18Z TAFS
UNCERTAINTIES EXIST WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT WHETHER
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES. FEEL THAT KOFK WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. KOMA WILL ALSO SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AXIS REMAINS ALONG THE RIVER.
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED TO THE SOUTH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...COMBINED WITH VERY SUBTLE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THUS...KOMA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOMETHING COULD CLIP KLNK VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/DEWALD